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    10月主要宏觀經濟數據明日出爐 基建投資有望觸底反彈
     

    10月主要宏觀經濟數據將于本周三出爐。市場普遍預期,隨著基建補短板政策見效,10月基建投資增速或觸底反彈,而工業增加值和消費增長有望保持平穩。

    今年以來,固定資產投資增速持續回落,但這一狀況在9月有了變化,當月整體投資增速出現近7個月來首次回升。這一上升趨勢10月有望繼續維持。

    中信證券首席經濟學家諸建芳認為,四季度固定資產投資將呈現“基建投資觸底企穩、制造業投資持續回升、房地產投資增速小幅回落”的特征。

    他預計,在宏觀政策預調微調和財政政策力度加大的背景下,未來基建投資增速有望觸底企穩。此外,高技術制造業投資不斷增長,制造業投資增速有望維持在8%至9%,對固定資產投資增長形成支撐。

    此前國家統計局公布的10月建筑業PMI連續兩個月環比上升,已為基建投資數據提前“預熱”。中國物流信息中心分析師武威分析,10月建筑業PMI連續兩個月運行在63%以上的高位,并創出年內新高,意味著短期內基建投資需求趨穩的可能性在加大。

    交行首席經濟學家連平在接受上證報記者采訪時表示,四季度基建投資增長有望提速,10月增速可能企穩微升,預計增長3.5%,之后將加快。

    他還表示,目前民間投資增速連續三個月保持在8.7%以上,新增加的民間投資中大部分是制造業投資,預計10月制造業投資增速8.7%左右。綜合判斷,預計10月固定資產投資增長5.6%,投資增速穩步回升。

    作為經濟增長的穩定器,消費增速最近兩個月也一直保持上升態勢。市場普遍認為,10月消費增長有望保持平穩,部分機構甚至預測10月消費增速或繼續改善。

    華泰證券宏觀研究團隊指出,低基數因素加上CPI緩慢上行都將支撐消費名義增速,預計10月社會消費品零售總額增速為9.5%,較9月回升0.3個百分點。不過,未來消費增速仍難以突破10%水平,全年增速預計為9.6%。

    此外,一系列先行指標及高頻監測數據均預示10月工業生產增速或繼續放緩。

    連平表示,10月制造業PMI顯著下降表明工業生產可能放緩,預計工業增加值增速放緩至5.5%。諸建芳也表示,六大發電集團耗煤量10月同比下跌19.1%,跌幅比9月擴大7.8個百分點,預計10月份工業增加值同比增速較上月回落0.2個百分點至5.6%。

    盡管當前部分經濟指標出現波動,但在連平看來,中國經濟依然具有韌性。隨著去產能任務基本完成,部分行業增長勢頭有望回升,而一系列促進消費政策的出臺,也將對消費起到提振作用。



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