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    中國經濟運行穩中有進
     

    今年以來,盡管面臨日益復雜嚴峻的國內外形勢,但中國經濟依然保持總體平穩運行。

    中國宏觀經濟

    整體平穩

    數據顯示,前三季度中國國內生產總值增長6.7%,其中第三季度增長6.5%,符合預期目標。中國居民消費價格基本穩定,制造業投資回升到近年來較高水平,進出口實現較快增長,利用外資規模穩步擴大,秋糧獲得豐收,居民收入增長與經濟增長基本同步,城鎮新增就業提前完成全年目標。中國政府在經濟結構持續優化的同時,大力支持民營經濟發展,實施了一系列促進金融市場健康發展的措施,提振了市場信心。

    根據國家統計局數據,1—9月社會消費品零售總額達到27.4萬億元,同比增長9.3%;9月當月同比增長9.2%,增速較8月上升0.2個百分點。前三季度,最終消費支出對經濟增長的貢獻率達到78%,比上年同期提高了14個百分點。近日,商務部市場運行司負責人公開表示,今年以來,我國消費市場規模保持平穩增長,消費結構不斷升級,消費對經濟增長的基礎性作用持續增強。前三季度消費市場表現出品質商品銷售較旺、服務消費提質擴容、網絡銷售保持較快增長、農村消費增速持續快于城鎮、消費價格溫和上漲等主要亮點。

    “同其他主要經濟體相比,中國經濟增長仍居世界前列。”中國人民大學經濟學院副院長陳彥斌表示,從國內生產總值來看,前三季度國內生產總值增速數據是穩定的,6.7%的增速與過去40年相比而言確實不夠亮眼,但中國經濟的增速繼續在全球主要經濟體中位居前列,大部分國家都很難達到中國經濟的增長速度。中國經濟發展健康穩定的基本面沒有改變,支撐高質量發展的生產要素條件沒有改變,長期穩中向好的總體勢頭沒有改變。

    全球經濟形勢面臨不確定性

    近日,國際貨幣基金組織發布的《世界經濟展望》報告顯示,在政策高度不確定的環境下,全球經濟面臨下行風險,貿易壁壘更為明顯。盡管發達經濟體的金融市場狀況依然寬松,但貿易局勢緊張、政策不確定性加劇等因素可能導致金融市場狀況迅速收緊。貨幣政策是另一個可能引發動蕩的因素。發達經濟體金融政策的收緊可能導致匯率發生急劇變動,新興市場的資本流入進一步減少。貿易局勢緊張程度加劇,使得基于規則的多邊貿易體系可能被削弱,這是全球經濟面臨的主要威脅。

    在國際貨幣基金組織駐華首席代表席睿德看來,未來全球貿易增長可能會有所放緩。當前國際油價抬升和發達國家金融政策收緊,對于新興市場國家會產生負面影響,但新興市場國家經濟總體上仍將保持穩定。展望2019年,席睿德認為,全球經濟增長趨勢依然穩定。具體而言,發達經濟體中期可能放緩,新興市場國家則更加穩定。

    加強宏觀調控

    當今世界正處于大發展大變革大調整時期,經濟全球化大潮滾滾向前。陳彥斌認為,在此背景下,中國應采取更加積極的宏觀政策。他建議,一是積極擴大內需,以應對外部環境的不確定性。要掃清體制機制的有關障礙,有效促進居民消費,提振民間投資。二是加大財政政策的力度,重點通過減稅降費等方式,降低當前有所偏高的宏觀稅負,更有效地應對經濟的下行壓力。三是貨幣政策需要維護流動性的穩定,并且加強對貨幣政策傳導機制的疏通,使前期實施的降準等一系列政策操作有效地傳導至實體經濟。四是進一步完善宏觀管理框架,從而更好地承擔維護金融穩定的任務,守住不發生系統性金融風險的底線。五是加強各類宏觀政策的協調。六是加強預期管理,引導公眾預期保持穩定。

    “在應對外部沖擊時,經濟的穩定性取決于通脹預期的錨定程度。”國際貨幣基金組織研究部經濟學家練唯誠認為,錨定程度越高,越能反周期運作,越不受限于匯率波動,進而能夠減少通脹持續性。同時,錨定程度取決于財政和貨幣政策框架。他認為,應增強公共財政長期可持續性,制定財政規則,必要時重建財政緩沖,并且提高央行可信度,增強其獨立性和政策的透明開放程度。



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